Thank you for spending some time with us today. This is your Summer 2026 National Housing Market Update, with an overlay of Central Texas data from your Austin real estate guru.

If you've been watching the headlines lately, you've seen a lot of talk about a cooling market or even a potential crash. But when we look at the actual data, a very different—and much more stable—story emerges.

Let's start with the big picture: mortgage rates. We began this year with lower expectations, but rates have now stabilized at an average of between 6% and 6.5%.

This has naturally led to a trimming of the sales outlook. While we originally expected a massive surge in volume, the forecast for total sales has been revised nationally to 4.9 million this year.

Now, you might hear "lower sales" and think "lower prices," but that's not what's happening.

Think of the market like a car driving through a school zone. The speedometer of home price appreciation has slowed down significantly from the triple-digit speeds of a few years ago, but it is still moving forward.

Prices are still expected to rise nationally by about 2% to 4% this year because inventory, while rising, remains relatively tight.

Why is this market so stable despite the challenges? The answer lies in the $34 trillion of equity held by American homeowners.

This is an incredible safety net. In fact, 67% of homeowners in this country—two out of every three—either own their home free and clear or have more than 50% equity.

This means we don't have forced sellers like we did in 2008, and people aren't being pushed out of their homes by debt.

Instead, the market today is being driven by major life events. In any given two-year span, we see 7 million births, 3 million marriages, and millions of people reaching retirement age.

These life changes—new jobs, growing families, or the desire to be closer to loved ones—are the primary reasons people are moving today.

For sellers, this means your pricing strategy is now more critical than ever. With more inventory on the market than we've seen in years, you have to be competitive to stand out.

For buyers, the good news is that you finally have more choices and a bit more time to make a decision without the frantic bidding wars of the past.

Bottom line: we're navigating a period of change, but the foundation of the United States housing market remains fundamentally strong.

Now, let's go over the Central Texas real estate update and see what we can learn.

There's a fascinating trend locally—what we're calling the "price blink."

While national headlines are focused on trimmed sales growth, the story here in Austin is quite different.

Nationally, the forecast for existing home sales growth has been revised down from 14% to just 4% for the year.

But in Travis and Williamson Counties, we're actually seeing sales volume go up even as prices begin to adjust.

Let's look at the May 2026 data for existing single-family homes—only single-family homes, not townhomes or condos.

In Travis County, the number of sales increased by 7.9% year over year. Yet, at the same time, the median sales price blinked, falling 2.4% to $620,000.

People are getting more realistic.

We see a similar—though even sharper—trend in Williamson County. Sales volume rose by 6.4%, but the median sales price pulled back by 4.1%, landing at $450,000.

So why is this happening?

It's all about inventory.

Texas is one of the few states where active inventory now exceeds pre-pandemic levels—that is, 2018 and 2019.

In Travis County, we have 3.49 months of inventory, and in Williamson County, that number is up to 3.87 months.

For buyers, this is the most leverage you've had in years. Enjoy it.

With nearly four months of inventory, you finally have the time to negotiate and the power to be selective in established neighborhoods.

For sellers, the data shows that pricing strategy is everything.

Locally, if a house sits on the market for about 51 days without an offer, it's often a signal that the market has blinked and a price adjustment is needed to meet current demand.

The takeaway is clear: the Central Texas market isn't slowing down in terms of activity. It's finding a new equilibrium.

Buyers are ready to move because of those major life events, and they're finding success when sellers price for today's reality.

As a sidebar, I might add that when we pulled this data ourselves, we focused on the main areas of Travis and Williamson Counties and ruled out the tiny towns, which tend to skew the data.

So if you'd like information that's more specific to your situation, reach out to us soon.

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See you next week.